Spatial Distortion and Local Political Preferences: An Analysis of the Modifiable Area Unit Problem (MAUP) in the 2024 Tapin Regency Election
- Authors
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Dwi Angga Oktavianto
SMK NEGERI 1 BINUANGAuthor -
Sanwit Iabchoon
Author
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- Keywords:
- MAUP, spatial voting behavior, political geography, electoral clusters, Local elections
- Abstract
- Electoral studies in Indonesia are still dominated by aggregate analysis of macro-level administrative areas such as districts or provinces, often ignoring the spatial heterogeneity of voters' political preferences. This study aims to examine the distortion in the interpretation of regional head election results using the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) approach, using the 2024 Tapin Regency Pilkada (regional head election) as a case study, and integrating it with spatial voting and neighborhood effect theories. The study uses a quantitative-descriptive method based on electoral spatial analysis using valid vote acquisition data for candidate pairs at the sub-district level obtained from the Tapin Regency General Elections Commission. Analytical techniques include calculating vote percentages, electoral dominance indices, spatial mapping of political clusters, and simple spatial trend testing to identify patterns of interconnectedness between adjacent areas. The results show significant spatial polarization, with mining-based areas and transmigrant communities exhibiting very high vote dominance, while traditional agrarian and urban-periurban areas exhibit more open electoral competition. The aggregation of results at the district level has been shown to obscure the existence of opposition clusters and substantial swing areas, thus confirming the impact of MAUP on local electoral analysis. These findings confirm that voters' political preferences in Tapin are not solely determined by rational individual choices but are shaped by the region's economic structure, community social homogeneity, and the influence of the local social environment. Theoretically, this study strengthens the contribution of electoral political geography in Indonesia by emphasizing the importance of multi-scale spatial analysis in understanding the dynamics of local democracy and avoiding interpretation biases caused by administrative territorial aggregation.
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